Cribbage Methodology

Methodology

1. Scoring your Hand + Cut:

Using the chart below we compute the exact score in your hand with the cut.

Name Points Detail
15s 2 Any combination of cards summing to 15
Pairs 2
Nobs 2 Jack suit matches cut suit
Flush 4 or 5 4 points if hand is all the same suit. 5 points if cut is also the same.
Runs 3-5 3-5 consecutive cards in any order. A point for every card. Eg. 2,3,4,5 earns 4 points.

2. Finding the Best Card to Throw:

The card to discard depends on your hand.

For each card in your hand, we compute what the expected score would be using the remaining cards as possible cuts.

For the math/stat readers:

Let us denote Score as a random variable taking on values obtained from the scoring method as defined in (1).

Furthermore, hand'=hand-{discard}

E[Score|Hand=hand',Cut]=

$$\frac{1}{47}\sum_{cut\in remainingcards}score_{hand',cut}$$

Where $score_{hand',cut}$ has value given by 5 cards consisting of hand' and cut.



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